terça-feira, 25 de fevereiro de 2014

Vídeo: O Misticismo da Estatística, por Dr. William Briggs


O grande estatístico William Briggs fez um vídeo sobre o misticismo da estatística. Ele trata da base filosófica da estatística sobre aleatoriedade (imprevisibilidade).

Briggs diz que por vezes a "sorte" na estatística é tratada como um objeto, como uma coisa, como se explicasse algo. E diz que aleatoriedade é simplesmente desconhecimento.  Uma coisa ou afirmação aleatória é uma coisa ou afirmação cujo valor é desconhecido, simplesmente isso.

Ele mostra, com o uso de uma moeda, que se há mudança nas informações disponíveis há mudança nas probabilidades. Se ninguém sabe onde está a moeda e só há duas possibilidades: a moeda está na mão direita ou na mão esquerda, então as probabilidades da moeda estar em um mão é de 1/2. Mas se é incluído a informação de que o cara que colocou a moeda na mão sabe onde ela está, as probabilidades mudam para 100% e 0%. Isto é, as probabilidades são sujeitas às infornmações.

Tratando de testes estatísticos para aprovar um droga, nos quais geralmente se escolhe um grupo de pessoas para tomar um remédio e um grupo para tomar placebo, Briggs mostra que as tentativas de tornar aleatória a escolha das pessoas para cada grupo geralmente usam algoritmos que são deterministas e não aleatórios.

Briggs diz que por vezes, quando o remédio teve uma reação muito pequena, os estatísticos dizem que o resultado foi "gerado  pela sorte", como se a sorte fosse uma coisa. Na verdade, eles não sabem como interpretar o  resultado.

Vejam o vídeo. Se souberem inglês, e um pouco de estatística, Briggs é fácil de entender.





segunda-feira, 24 de fevereiro de 2014

A Vida dos Iniciantes em Wall Street. Ou seu Trabalho é Criativo ou Distributivo?


Kevin Rose, no livro acima, fez uma pesquisa sobre a vida dos jovens que entram no mercado financeiro americano (wall street).

É uma vida dedicada exclusivamente ao trabalho (ao chefe) 24h por dia, em qualquer dia, e cuja principal obrigação é ganhar dinheiro para o banco, em detrimento de outros, ganha-se fazendo outro perder. O objetivo do trabalho é redistribuir o poder, a grana, entre os agentes financeiros. Um trabalho que corriqueiramente leva à depressão e ao afastameto dos amigos e familiares.

Rose acompanhou de perto e entrevistou estes inicantes em Wall Street após a crise de 2008.

Ele escreveu um texto sobre no The Atlantic que mostra a angústia destes jovens. Vejam abaixo:

The Woes of Wall Street: Why Young Bankers Are So Miserable

The pay is good. Everything else is bad. 
 
Over a few beers after work one spring evening, two junior Goldman Sachs employees started contemplating the best ways to kill themselves.

“If the goal is, like, how do I inflict maximum psychological damage, then I think just going up to your desk and blowing your brains out in the middle of the day would be the best,” said Jeremy Miller-Reed, 23.
“Nah,” said Samson White, 22. “You know what would happen? All the other analysts would get an e-mail from the associates saying, ‘Can you guys clean this up?’ And then everyone would go back to work.”

Jeremy and Samson—I’ve changed their names to protect their anonymity—were first-year analysts at Goldman. They’d arrived from their Ivy League campuses less than a year before, fresh-faced and idealistic. Jeremy had gotten placed in commodities, and Samson had made a home in the firm’s mortgage division. Good friends since their summer internships the year before, they’d been excited, at first, to join the ranks and get to work making money. But quickly, their enthusiasm had been buried underneath massive piles of work, grueling hours, and unforgiving bosses. In one particularly bleak moment, they’d started calling Goldman’s downtown headquarters “Azkaban,” after the prison in the Harry Potter series where inmates’ souls are sucked from their bodies.

For my new book, Young Money: Inside the Hidden World of Wall Street’s Post-Crash Recruits, I spent three years shadowing eight young Wall Street workers, including Jeremy and Samson. Given the rollicking depictions of finance life we see in movies like The Wolf of Wall Street, and the fact that these jobs are extremely well-paidfirst-year investment bankers make anywhere from $90,000 to $140,000, including year-end bonusesyou might think that my eight banker informants were living the good life. But in three years, hardly an interview went by without a young banker confessing his or her struggles with depression and health problems, expressing a desire to quit, or simply complaining about how working in finance was ruining the pleasures of normal life.

Why are young bankers so uniformly miserable? After spending many, many hours in their company, I think at least three factors explain why Wall Street is a singularly unpleasant place for young people to work.

1. The Hours
Wall Street is notorious for the long hours it imposes on its worker bees. (One young banker bragged to me about working the “banker 9-to-5,” defined as 9 a.m. until 5 a.m. the next day.) But lots of professions – law and medicine, to name just two – work their underlings hard. What makes banking different is that the work can arrive at any moment, unannounced and requiring immediate attention. If a client needs a PowerPoint presentation at 4 a.m. on Christmas morning, a junior banker will have to wake up and get to the office.

What this means, in practice, is that young bankers live in a state of perpetual anxiety, and advance planning becomes impossible. Boyfriends and girlfriends get upset about broken dinner plans, friends and family members become estranged, and phones function as third limbs. This unpredictability, combined with the sheer number of hours involved, takes a toll. A recent academic study of young bankers by a University of Southern California business school professor named Alexandra Michel underscored the vital, even bodily, nature of the transformation that is taking place during a banker’s first years. Michel wrote:
During years 1–3, bankers construed their bodies as objects that the mind controls. They worked long hours, neglected family and hobbies, and fought their [bodies’] needs in order to enhance productivity. They suppressed the need for prolonged sleep, taking “naps at 11 p.m. and then again at 1, 3, and 4.” When I asked, “Aren’t you worried that this will affect your health?” most responded like this Bank A associate: “For the next few years, work has priority. I’ll worry about my health then.” To my question, “What if you do irreversible damage?” many answered, ‘‘I am willing to take that risk.”
Recently, Wall Street banks have tried to ease up on young workers by, in many cases, giving them the weekends off. But will the new rules really mean a lighter workload? Or will the weekdays become even more painful to make up for missed Saturdays?

2. Money
All eight of the young bankers I followed entered the financial industry after the crash of 2008 and saw a wildly different scene than they’d imagined as college students. Thousands of bankers were being laid off, firms were chopping off entire divisions, and pay for everyone had come down to levels that, while still lucrative by any real-world measure, were far lower than they’d been before the crash.

For young Wall Street bankers, who often get themselves through tough stretches by imagining their year-end bonuses arriving, the post-crash uncertainty was destabilizing. Once, it had been relatively certain that a young banker or trader who did well would earn much more with each passing year, and would eventually become a millionaire, probably before his or her 30th birthday. But after 2008, the golden pathway began to splinter. New regulation meant to prevent another financial crisis made banks less profitable, and the struggling markets meant that even young bankers—who had historically been immune from layoffs during downturns, so cheap was their labor compared to that of senior bankerswere at risk of losing it all. 
One Goldman Sachs analyst explained to me the effect the layoffs and cost-cuts had on the psyches of the sector’s youth.

“You’re working with this constant fear,” he said. “You go to this bulletproof firm, it gives you a ton of options, and it’s really self-validating. And then all of the sudden, you have no options, you’re not getting paid nearly as much as you thought, and you might get fired. And then you start thinking, Well, shit, I could be halfway through law school, and instead I’m in New York dicking around doing models and bottles, and at the end of it I won’t even have that much to show for it.

The markets have since recovered, as has profitability at some of the Wall Street firms damaged during the crisis. But young Wall Street hasn’t regained its sense of security. It might take a while.

3. Purpose
It might sound strange, but many young people come to Wall Street expecting to make the world a better place. This is partly the fault of recruiters, who tempt college juniors and seniors with promises of “real-world responsibility” and rhapsodies about socially responsible investing. But it’s also wishful thinking on the recruits’ part. Jeremy, for instance, had arrived at Goldman thinking that his specific jobtrading commodities derivativescould make the world a teensy bit better by allowing large companies to hedge their costs, and pass savings along to customers. But one day, his boss pulled him aside and told him that, in effect, he’d been naïve.

“We’re not here to save the world,” the boss said. “We exist to make money.”

The British economist Roger Bootle has written about the difference between “creative” and “distributive” work. Creative work, Bootle says, is work that brings something new into the world that adds to the total available to everyone (a doctor treating patients, an artist making sculptures). Distributive work, on the other hand, only carries the possibility of beating out competitors and winning a bigger share of a fixed-size market. Bootle explains that although many jobs in modern society consist of distributive work, there is something intrinsically happier about a society that skews in favor of the creative.

“There are some people who may derive active delight from the knowledge that their working life is devoted to making sure that someone else loses, but most people do not function that way,” he writes. “They like to have a sense of worth, and that sense usually comes from the belief that they are contributing to society.”
During my interviews with young bankers, I heard a lot of them express this exact sentiment. They wanted to do something, make something, add something to the world, instead of simply serving as well-paid financial intermediaries at giant investment banks. It doesn’t hurt that creative jobsincluding, but not limited to, jobs with Silicon Valley tech companiesare now considered sexier and more socially acceptable than Wall Street jobs, which still carry the stigma of the financial crisis. At one point, during the Occupy Wall Street protests, Jeremy told me that he had begun camouflaging his Goldman affiliation in public.

“I lie whenever I go out now,” he told me. “I tell people I’m a consultant, a lawyer, whatever—anything but a Wall Street guy.”

I won’t spoil the end for youyou’ll have to read the book to find out how Jeremy and Samson ended up coping with their dissatisfactionbut suffice it to say that they both found creative work that satisfied their desire to make a difference while still providing financial stability and drawing upon their well-honed business skills. For them, and for countless other young Wall Streeters in the post-crash era, the promise of a six-figure paycheck alone just doesn’t cut it anymore.

 

sexta-feira, 21 de fevereiro de 2014

Caso Ucrânia: Economista tem mania de achar que sabe tudo.


Eu sou economista, com mestrado, mas fico decepcionado toda vez que vejo um bom economista reduzindo as questões sociais a questões econômicas. Eu costumo dizer que os economistas dominam o mundo, pois mesmo os políticos e sociólogos às vezes fazem a mesma coisa.

Ontem eu vi um post sobre a Ucrânia no site Zero Hedge que me lembrou disso. O autor reduziu o problema na Ucrânia a uma simples questão econômica dos gasedutos que atravessam o país para abstecer a Europa com gás.

O título do post dele é "Ukraine Situation" Explained in One Map" (A Crise na Ucrânia Explicada em um Único Mapa). Colocando o Mapa que vai acima.

É claro que os fatores econômicos são importantes, o povo precisa trabalhar para sobreviver. Mas não, a crise na Ucrânia não é explicada pelo mapa! O país é um caos a longo tempo com níveis de corrupção altíssimos tanto de quem está no poder como da oposição. Além disso, o país tem questões históricas problemáticas com a Rússia e também com a Europa. Eu já falei do Holodomor, por exemplo, no meu outro blog.

Eu costumo dizer que o ensino de economia perdeu o rumo quando Adam Smith idolatrou o egoísmo ("mão invisível"). Antes, havia considerações sociais bem mais profundas. Hoje o economista é exigido o conhecimento de vários modelos matemáticos, mas não tem a menor ideia de história, filosofia, direito, etc. O pior é que os cientistas sociais embarcaram na lógica econômica.

Rezemos pelo povo da Ucrânia.

E a questão da Venezuela? Bom, o que acontece na Venezuela é reflexo da velha idiotice latino-americana.


quinta-feira, 20 de fevereiro de 2014

Será que salário mínimo gera desemprego?


Obama está querendo implantar salário mínimo nos Estados Unidos. O Escritório Bipartidário de Orçamento (CBO) disse que isto causará a demissão de possivelmente milhões de pessoas, pois a mão de obra ficará mais cara. O governo Obama estão passou a dizer que pode ser uma coisa boa as pessoas trabalharem menos. Meu Deus do céu! É a valorização da preguiça.

E a não é a primeira vez que a administração Obama acha que é uma boa coisa este negócio das pessoas trabalhare pouco. O CBO também falou que o sistema de sáude implantado por Obama irá provocar desemprego. O governo disse que seria boa as pessoas "perseguirem seus sonhos" ao invés de trabalhar.

Mas será que o salário mínimo gera desemprego sempre?

Eu sempre costumo responder a este tipo de questão, perguntando o que a pessoa chama de desemprego? As definições de desemprego são complexas e os cálculos de desemprego são muitas vezes mal feitos. Por exemplo, no Brasil, a taxa de desemprego mais observada não considera as pessoas que desistiram de procurar emprego e também não observa o País inteiro, apenas seis capitais. Se você mora em Fortaleza e está desempregado, você não faz parte da Pesquisa Mensal de Emprego do IBGE.

Assim dificulta-se a resposta da pergunta.

Mas você pode responder olhando simplesmente a lei de demanda: quanto maior o preço, menor a procura. Quanto maior o salário, menos se procura por trabalhadores. É o que fez o grande economista americano Thomas Sowell abaixo. Texto publicado no site Townhall

Minimum Wage Madness

terça-feira, 18 de fevereiro de 2014

Por que a Bélgica adora a Cultura da Morte a ponto de aprovar a eutanásia para crianças?


A Bélgica aprovou recentemente a eutanásia em crianças, basta só o Rei Phillipe sancionar. Por que a Bélgica fez isso? Como este país chegou a este estado de valorização da morte? Quais foram os fatores sociais que explicam isso?

Talvez este assunto seja mais afeto a meu outro blog, mas lá eu traduzo textos que originalmente são em inglês e agora eu não tenho tempo para isso.

Quem deu uma ótima explicação histórica do caso da Bélgica foi Tracey Rowland, publicado pela Crisis Magazine. Ela foi bastante profunda, faltou apenas lembrar o fato que a Bélgica está tão destruída que passou mais de ano sem qualquer governo e que os muçulmanos vão dominando o país.


Leiam o texto de Tracey, ela explica o caso filosoficamente/teologicamente.


What’s Wrong with Belgium?


There is something beautiful about Belgium if one thinks of the Flemish architecture, the canals, the countryside dotted with blue-grey cows that produce the milk that makes the whipped cream (in Flemish Slagroom) for the cafes and patisseries.  There are country lanes with bicycles and villages with medieval churches and towns with great works of Christian art.  There’s Van Eyck’s Adoration of the Lamb and the venerated relic of Holy Blood allegedly collected by Joseph of Arimathea and brought from the Holy Land by Thierry of Alsace, Count of Flanders. However, against all this natural beauty and fine works of art, including the artistic works of the pastry chefs and the lace-makers, there is something deeply sinister about this country. Its Catholic culture has been trashed by a couple of generations of intellectuals at war with their own heritage.

I first visited Belgium in 2004 to attend a theology conference in Leuven.  The conference Mass was the most bizarre liturgical experience of my life.  It did not take place in any of the many churches in Leuven but in the conference room itself.  Part of the ritual took the form of watching a video of the September 11 attack on the twin towers while listening to mood music.  One of the participants from Holland was dressed in a folk costume and looked like a member of the band The Village People.  There was also a Nigerian priest who was treated like an idiot because he expressed respect for Cardinal Arinze.  I took some flak for being critical of the culture of modernity and one polite person apologized to me by saying, “you see, around here people think of you as an ally of Joseph Ratzinger”!

My overall impression was that Leuven was like a town that had been hit by a neutron bomb—the kind of bomb that kills people but leaves buildings intact.  All the Gothic buildings remained—the outward symbols of a once vibrant Catholic culture were still on view as tourist attractions—but the people who worked within the buildings seemed not to be the original inhabitants, but another people who had moved in after some terrible cataclysm and were ill at ease with what had gone before.  Our Lady, the Seat of Wisdom, and Patroness of Leuven, appeared marginalized.

A few years later I attended another theology conference, this time in Krakow.  A Belgian professor delivered the keynote address in the hall of the Polish Academy of the Arts and Sciences.  He veered off topic and gave a rousing oration in favor of the projects of the culture of death (eugenics, euthanasia, a tax on babies etc).  He even argued that anyone who opposed contraception should be convicted of a criminal offense.  Not all the conference participants were supporters of Humanae Vitae, but they were completely shocked that such an anti-life and totalitarian speech could be given in the hall of the Polish Academy just a couple of hours drive from Auschwitz.  What stunned the participants was the closeness of the ideology of the speaker to that of the Nazi ideologues whose specters (metaphorically speaking) still haunt the streets of Krakow.  A quick Google search revealed that the illustrious academic had been Jesuit educated in Antwerp and was a product of the University of Leuven.  A more recent Google search revealed that last year he ended his life by being given a lethal injection in the presence of his children.  He at least had the virtue of practicing what he preached, but I wondered how someone who was Jesuit educated in the 1930s could end up in such a spiritual state.  In an interview given not long before his death he said that religion is nonsense, a childish explanation for things that science has yet to fathom.  At some moment in his life he had bought the Feuerbachian critique.

Last year one of the worst songs in the entire Eurovision contest was the entry from Belgium.  It was called “Love Kills.” The refrain of the song was:
Waiting for the bitter pill
Give me something I can feel
‘Cause love kills over and over
Love kills over and over
Whatever this means exactly it’s a radical inversion of the normal juxtaposition of love with life and generativity.  Other countries offered the usual assortment of Eurovision styles, some heavy metal, some punk, a few soft ballads, but the Belgian entry stood out as something very dark and creepy, a culture of death pop song.

Poor King Philippe is now in a position of having to decide what to do about the fact that his government has voted in favor of euthanasia for children.  Many hope that he will follow the precedent of his saintly uncle King Baudouin who in 1990 abdicated for a day rather than have his name on pro-abortion legislation.  At the time King Baudouin rhetorically asked: Is it right that I am the only Belgian citizen to be forced to act against his conscience in such a crucial area? Is the freedom of conscience sacred for everyone except for the king?

The hospital in Brussels where sick children are to be “put down” is named in honor of Queen Fabiola, the widow of King Baudouin. Presumably she doesn’t want her name associated with an institution that gives lethal injections to children. Perhaps she will withdraw permission for the use of her name from the hospital?
What went wrong?  How can a nation that is even nominally Catholic do this?  Can all this be pinned on the theology of Edward Schillebeeckx and his colleagues who wanted to correlate theology to the spirit of the times, to accommodate Catholicism to modernity?  Or is the causality much more complex?  Why is Belgium in so much worse a state than even France or Germany?

In the wake of this parliamentary decision bloggers from across the English Channel are suggesting that the British defense of Belgium in World War I was a huge waste of life and time.  If the Belgians really desire a culture of death they could have settled for Prussian domination a century earlier and saved the rest of the world a whole lot of trauma.

King Baudouin and Queen Fabiola may not have been able to protect the Catholic culture of Belgium from the zeitgeist of the 1960s but at least they took an unambiguous stand against it.  Some battles can’t be won politically, only spiritually, and sometimes the political victories follow decades and even centuries of spiritual preparation.  For example, historians now say that the decade of the Great Novena (from the mid-1950s to the mid-1960s) was the spiritual, intellectual and even logistical preparation for the emergence of the Polish Solidarity movement in the 1980s.

The current predicament in which King Philippe finds himself is but another moment in a battle which began sometime in the 1960s when Belgian intellectuals decided that the Catholic faith had passed its use-by date.  Let’s pray that King Philippe has the courage to stand in solidarity with his late uncle, and all those throughout the world who believe that human life is sacred.  Let’s hope that he looks as this from the perspective of eternity.

segunda-feira, 17 de fevereiro de 2014

A Ciência Econômica dos Papas.


Hoje, eu li a indicação do livro do padre Maciej Zieba, que faz um resumo da Doutrina Católica para economia desde a "Carta Magna", Rerum Novarum.Não sei se o livro ressalta o Distributismo (doutrina econômica surgida a partir do Rerum Novarum), mas certamente é um livro para se comprar, para que se pare de dizer asneiras sobre a Igreja quando se trata de questões econômicas. Apesar de eu achar que o livro não irá acabar com o debate entre aqueles que puxam a Igreja mais para o socialismo e aqueles que puxam a Igreja para o libertarianismo (tese liberal extrema).

Vejam a análise do livro pelo padre e historiador John McCloskey:

Papal Economics Condensed

Book review of Papal Economics


Everybody is interested in economics, for the simple reason that the state of the economy has an important effect not only on individuals but also on the basic building block of society, the family. Even Joseph and Mary must have noticed if the shekel lost value or the crops were not distributed fairly by the Romans, making it more difficult to feed and clothe their special Child.

The Catholic Church, too, is concerned with the whole human person, including not only the faithful’s salvation, but also their earthly well-being — and the state of the economy plays its part in that well-being. Even the early Fathers of the Church preached on the proper use of earthly goods, and in the Middle Ages, the theologian, St. Thomas Aquinas, also wrote about the economy and the serious sin of debasing the currency (what we call inflation).

The title of this book says it all. Father Maciej Zieba, who was close to the soon-to-be canonized John Paul II, has written perhaps the most condensed explanation of the Church’s teaching on economics, covering all the papal social encyclicals, from Pope Leo XIII’s Rerum Novarum in 1891 up to and including Pope Benedict XVI’s Caritas in Veritate in 2009. However, Father Zieba focuses primarily on Centesimus Annus in this book, explaining:

"Centesimus Annus provides the most comprehensive answer to a deceptively challenging question: What is the Church’s position on democratic capitalism? For decades the Catholic commentators of all stripes have tried to enlist Catholic social teaching in their cause, arguing that it is variously pro-left-wing or right-wing or pro-socialist or pro-capitalist. This book aims to correct the misconceptions about the Church’s teaching on economics. Although the teaching evolved in certain important respects over more than a century, the social encyclicals display a continuity many observers have missed. As early as Rerum Novarum in the nineteenth century, popes rejected socialism as wrong in its core."

He goes on to write, "It is clear that a democratic state characterized by the rule of law and endowed by a market economy in which human freedom can find expression deserves praise and respect."

I direct the reader particularly to Chapter Four, on "The Primacy of Culture," which was at the heart of John Paul’s hope for humanity. As he put it:

"All human activity takes place within a culture and interacts with culture. For an adequate formation of culture, the involvement of the whole man is required, whereby he exercises his creativity, intelligence and knowledge of the world and of people. Furthermore, he displays his capacity for self-control, personal sacrifice, solidarity and readiness to promote the common good."

This book is an invaluable tool for anyone who values religious liberty and a healthy culture for the family.

 (Agradeço a indicação do livro ao site New Advent).

sexta-feira, 14 de fevereiro de 2014

A Moeda da al Qaeda (com Bin Laden e World Trade Center)






O grupo terrorista al-Qaeda, ao contrário do que disse Obama na campanha presidencial, está mais forte do que nunca, coisa que o próprio Departamento de Estado dos Estados Unidos já reconheceu. A chamada Primavera Árabe fez muito bem aos grupos terroristas. A al Qaeda está até próxima de dominar completamente parte de países, como no Iraque e na Síria.

O site The Blaze contou esta semana que um ramo da al Qaeda até está criando sua própria moeda, com bin Laden e as torres gêmeas do World Trade Center em chamas nas cédulas (foto acima).

Vejam texto do The Blaze:


Al Qaeda-Linked Group Reportedly Started Printing Its Own Currency in Iraq With…Guess Whose Photo

An Al Qaeda-linked group is issuing paper bills in western Iraq featuring images of Osama bin Laden and the World Trade Center towers that were destroyed in the September 11 attacks, according to local media reports.

A tribal leader in western Iraq’s Anbar Province showed the media a photo of one of the bills issued by the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIL) printed in the amount of “one Islamic hundred pounds.” This photo was posted on several Arabic websites:

The Kurdish website PUKmedia quoted local official Hameed al-Hais who said the currency would not be recognized in Anbar and that anyone carrying the banknotes would be considered a member of ISIL which is fighting with the aim of establishing a Shariah law-compliant state in Iraq, Syria and beyond.

“The 100-guinea note bore the likeness of former Al Qaeda chief Osama bin Laden on one side, and the two World Trade Center towers attacked by the group on September 11, 2001 on the other,” PUKmedia reported.

Iran’s semi-official Fars News Agency reported that the currency — presumably intended to replace the Iraqi dinar — is being called the “ISIL dinar.” The paper bills bear the signatures of ISIL’s leader and finance minister, though their names are not typed out, Fars reported.

Sunni tribal chief Sheikh Ahmed Abu Risha who heads the Anbar Salvation Council presented the currency as evidence of the continuing presence of ISIL in Anbar and emphasized the need for Iraqi police and local tribes to join forces in the fight against terror.

Anbar has been the focal point of clashes between the Iraqi Army and the ISIL fighters. The Islamist militants and their allies captured Fallujah and parts of Ramadi in the restive province last month.