segunda-feira, 29 de fevereiro de 2016

Um Recorde Negativo de Obama: 10 Anos de Crescimento Abaixo de 3,0%.

Toda vez que alguém fala que gosta de Obama, eu pergunto o que ele gosta mais em Obama, e daí, se essa pessoa não defende aborto ou casamento gay ou é muçulmano, eu consigo provar para a pessoa que ele não deveria gostar de Obama. A pessoa está mal informada.

Quando o assunto é economia, fica muito fácil rebater, e provar que Obama foi um desastre nesse aspecto.

Um texto da CNSNews revela um recorde negativo de Obama em matéria de crescimento econômico: 10 anos com crescimento abaixo da média histórica de 3,9%. Aliás, a média de Obama é 2,1%. Há outros recordes negativos de Obama relacionados ao mercado de trabalho ou aumento de uso de benefícios estatais ou de taxas de juros ou de compras de títulos pelo Fed, ou queda de produtividade.

O maior de tempo de crescimento abaixo de 3,0%, antes de Obama, foi de 4 anos, durante a grande depressão dos anos 30. Obama conseguiu o dobro.

O melhor período de crescimento foi nos anos do presidente Ronald Reagan.

Vejamos o texto da CNSNews.

U.S. Has Record 10th Straight Year Without 3% Growth in GDP

By Terence P. Jeffrey | February 26, 2016 | 4:05 PM EST
( - The United States has now gone a record 10 straight years without 3 percent growth in real Gross Domestic Product, according to data released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis.
The BEA has calculated GDP for each year going back to 1929 and it has calculated the inflation-adjusted annual change in GDP (in constant 2009 dollars) from 1930 forward.
In the 85 years for which BEA has calculated the annual change in real GDP there is only one ten-year stretch—2006 through 2015—when the annual growth in real GDP never hit 3 percent. During the last ten years, real annual growth in GDP peaked in 2006 at 2.7 percent. It has never been that high again, according to the BEA.
The last recession ended in June 2009, according to the National Bureau of Economic Research. In the six full calendar years since then (2010-2015), real annual GDP growth has never exceeded the 2.5 percent it hit in 2010.
“The average growth rate for economic recoveries since the 1960s is 3.9 percent ranking the Obama recovery, with an average GDP growth rate of just 2.1 percent, among the slowest in history,” said Sen. Dan Coats (R.-Ind,), who chairs the Joint Economic Committee of the U.S. Congress.
Before this period, the longest stretch of years when real GDP did not grow by at least 3.0 percent, as calculatd by the BEA, was the four-year stretch from 1930 to 1933—during the Great Depression.
In addition to that four-stretch from 1930-1933, there have also been four three-year stretches where the real annual growth in GDP did not go as high as 3.0 percent. Those periods were 1945-1947 (in the immediate aftermath of World War II); 1956-1958; 1980-1982; and 2001-2003.
The longest consecutive stretch of years in which the United State saw real GDP grow by 3.0 percent or better was the seven year period from 1983-1989, during the presidency of Ronald Reagan.
The second longest stretch of years in which the U.S. saw real GDP grow by 3.0 percent or better was the six-year period from 1939 through 1944. (World War II started in Europe in 1939 and the U.S. entered the war in December 1941 when Japan attacked Pearl Harbor.)
In the last two years, annual growth in real GDP hit a plateau of 2.4 percent.
“Real GDP increase by 2.4 percent in 2015 (that is, from the 2014 annual level to the 2015 annual level), the same rate as in 2014,” the BEA said in the press release it put out today when it published its revised estimate for GDP growth in the fourth quarter of 2015.
In that quarter, according to today’s revised estimate, GDP increased at an annual rate of 1.0 percent.
In the Annual Report of the Council of Economic Advisers that President Obama sent to Congress this week, the administration noted that it is projecting real GDP to grow by only 2.7 percent this year and by less than that in the following two years.
“Real GDP is projected to grow 2.7, 2.5, and 2.4 percent during the four quarters of 2016, 2017, and 2018, respectively,” said the report.
Next week, the Joint Economic Committee will be holding a hearing on the president's economic report.
“Whether it is burdensome regulations, a broken tax code or a ballooning national debt, the Obama Administration’s policies are a dead weight on the economy,” said Sen. Coats. “Under this president, we continue to see stubbornly low workforce participation and historically high long-term unemployment rates.
“In order to boost GDP, we need to overhaul our tax code and strip away unnecessary government regulations to give employers the confidence they need grow their businesses and create new jobs. Congress can take action to help grow our economy, but we need a willing partner in the White House,” said Coats.
“On Wednesday,” said Coats, “I am chairing a JEC hearing on the President’s economic assessment, and we’ll hear from the Chairman of his Council of Economic Advisors, Jason Furman, on ways we can work together to improve economic growth.”

sexta-feira, 12 de fevereiro de 2016

Depois de 637 Cortes de Taxas de Juros e US$ 12,3 Trilhões, Mundo Continua em Recessão

Desde a crise de 2008, que o  mundo decidiu que faria uma solução keynesiana extremista para salvar a economia global, juros baixíssimo e até negativos e jogar muito, mas muito dinheiro no mercado, quase jogando dinheiro de helicóptero. 

E aí, o que ocorreu? Depois de oito anos, temos ainda economia global em ritmo de recessão.

Depois de aumentar pouquíssimo os juros em dezembro, o Federal Reserve (Banco Central dos EUA) já sinaliza que os juros por lá podem ficar negativos, como ocorre em alguns países europeus e no Japão.

Isso é, o mundo ainda não aprendeu que o tal "quantitative easing" não dá certo. Bom, não dá certo para salvar a economia, mas enriquece ainda mais os ricos, que vendem seus ativos que ninguém quer para os bancos centrais.

Foram 637 cortes de juros no mundo desde 2008 e 12,3 trilhões de dólares de compra de ativos por parte dos bancos centrais (enriquecendo muita gente) e nada, o mundo não retoma crescimento. Os Estados Unidos têm a pior recuperação econômica da história, não conseguem passar de crescimento da faixa de 2% desde 2008 e esse ano deve ficar abaixo disso. A Europa continua patinando e os países emergentes reduzem fortemente o crescimento. O, o Brasil está em recessão profunda, e pior, com elevada inflação.

Vejam texto elucidativo do site Zero Hedge.

637 Rate Cuts And $12.3 Trillion In Global QE Later, World Shocked To Find "Quantitative Failure"
Tyler Durden's picture
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 02/12/2016 11:30 -0500
2016 is shaping up to be the year that everyone finally comes to terms with the fact that the monetary emperors truly have no clothes.
To be sure, it’s been a long time coming. For nearly 8 years, market participants and economists convinced themselves that the answer was always “more Keynes.” Global trade still stagnant? Cut rates. Economic growth still stuck in neutral? Buy more assets.
It was almost as if everyone lost sight of the fact that if printing fiat scrip and tinkering with the cost of money were the answers, there would never be any problems. That is, policy makers can always hit ctrl+P and/or move rates around. But in order to resuscitate anemic aggregate demand and revive inflation, you need to tackle the core problems facing the global economy - not paper over them (and we mean “paper over them” in the most literal sense of the term).
Well late last month, central banks officially lost control of the narrative. Kuroda’s move into negative territory reeked of desperation andgiven the surging JPY and tumbling Japanese stocks, it’s pretty clear that the half-life on central bank easing has fallen dramatically.
And so, as the market wakes up from the punchbowl party with a massive hangover, everyone is suddenly left to contemplate “quantitative failure.” Below, courtesy of BofA's Michael Hartnett is a bullet point summary of 8 years spent chasing the dragon... and a list of the disappointing results.
*  *  * 
From BofA                                                     
Whether the recent tipping point was the Fed hike, negative rates in Europe & Japan, or simply the growing market dislocations and macro misallocation of resources and wealth, the deflationary theme of “Quantitative Failure” is stalking the financial markets. A multi-year period of major policy intervention & “financial repression” is ending with weak economic growth & investors rebelling against QE.
In short, monetary policies of...
  • 637 rate cuts since Bear Stearns
  • $12.3tn of asset purchases by global central banks in the past 8 years
  • $8.3tn of global government debt currently yielding 0% or less
  • 489 million people currently living in countries with official negative rates policies (i.e. Japan, Eurozone, Switzerland, Sweden, Denmark)
  • -0.92%, the most negative yield in the world (2-year Swiss government bond)
...have in 2016 led to a macro environment symbolized by...
  • BofAML’s Chief US Economist Ethan Harris cutting potential trend real GDP growth in the US to 1.75%
  • inflation expectations in both the US & Europe dropping below 2008 levels & a global profits recession
  • one of the most deflationary recoveries of all-time: in the past 26 quarters the nominal GDP of advanced economies has grown 11%
and a significant impact on Wall Street...
  • a bear market in equities (median stock in ACWI is down 28% from its highs; 45% of global stocks (1123) are down >30% from highs)
  • bear market in commodities (10-year rolling return from commodities is currently -5.1%, the worst since 1938) & credit markets
  • $686bn of market cap loss for global banks since Dec 15th  the day before the Fed hiked - and worsening global liquidity conditions, which in-turn will likely cause bank lending standards to tighten further
  • and, most conspicuously, falling bank stocks and falling bond yields suggesting that 6 years of QE has failed to arrest deflation.
*  *  *
What comes next is anyone's guess but with China's credit bubble about to burst in spectacular fashion, we wonder how central banks plan to combat the ensuing hit to the global economy. After all, their counter-cyclical policy room is not only exhausted, they've now taken the easing bias so far into the monetary twilight zone that in Japan's case, things are starting to backfire and are becoming self referential (see the recently canceled JGB auction). 
Throw in the fact that $12.3 trillion in asset purchases has impaired liquidity across markets and you have the conditions for what could turn into a truly harrowing year not only for Wall Street, but for Main Street as well. The same Main Street that was allegedly saved by a "courageous" Ben Bernanke who started us all down this road 8 long years ago.