Aniversário: 18 anos sem Aquecimento Global.

Patrick Michaels (foto), PhD em climatologia e professor durante 30 anos de ciências do meio ambiente da Universidade da Virgina, faz parte do chamado IPCC da ONU que cuida de questões relacionadas a mudança climática. E é diretor do Instituto Cato para questões relacionadas ao clima.

Michaels lembrou ontem que no próximo dia 1 de outubro se completará 18 anos que não se registra aquecimento global na superfície da terra.

Há dois atrás, eu lembrei do aniversário de 16 anos sem aquecimento, no meu outro blog.

Michaels também destacou que o tamanho da crosta polar na Antártica está maior desde 1978 e o o Ártico parou o derretimento em 2005/2006. Os ambientalista costumam olhar para os polos para dizer que o gelo está derretendo.

Vejamos parte o texto da CNS News:

Upcoming Anniversary: October 1st Will Mark 18 Years of No Global Warming

By Barbara Hollingsworth

According to the datasets used last year, October 1st will mark the 18th year of “no significant warming trend in surface average temperature," says Patrick Michaels, director of the Cato Institute’s Center for the Study of Science.

And even if the current 18-year trend were to end, it would still take nearly 25 years for average global temperature figures to reflect the change, said Michaels, who has a Ph.D. in ecological climatology and spent three decades as a research professor of environmental sciences at the University of Virginia.

Sooner or later, even Al Gore and the numerous scientists, academics and politicians who agree with him that “Earth has a fever” will have to admit that their climate models predicting catastrophic global warming were off by a long shot, said Michaels, who was also a contributing editor to the United Nations’ second Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) report.

“It has to be admitted eventually that too much warming was forecast too fast. That just has to happen. You can’t go on and on and on,” he told CNSNews.com.

“If the surface temperature resumed the warming rate that we observed from, say 1977 through 1998, we would still go close to a quarter of a century without significant net warming because there’s such a long flat period built into the record now. “

ut there’s no indication that after 18 years, global warming will resume anytime soon.

Michaels pointed to record Antarctic ice, which “is at its highest extent measured by the current microwave satellite sounding system” since 1978, according to data from the University of Illinois’  Polar Ice Research Center.

“And if you take a close look at the Arctic data, it appears the decline stopped somewhere around 2005/2006, which means we’ve almost had ten years without any net loss in Arctic ice,” he told CNSNews.com.

Nor does it look likely that the next El Nino, which Michaels says is “really weak,” will have much of an effect on global temperatures.

“The much vaunted and predicted El Nino, which would [ordinarily] spike global temperature, is not going according to plan,” Michaels pointed out. “That’s the major known oscillation in global temperature, and we can’t even get that one right in the near term.”

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“I would say that his order of needs is a little bit out of whack,” Michaels told CNSNews.com.

“Given that a cogent political analysis indicates that the loss of control of the House of Representatives by the Democratic Party was the result of their passing the unpopular cap-and-trade bill in 2009 - in the 2010 election they lost 64 seats- you would think that this is kind of a political hot potato," he continued.

“And in fact, our friends in Europe, who are certainly leftier and greenier than we tend to be as a country, are trying to back away from this issue,” he noted, adding that the major heads of state of China, India, Australia, Canada and Germany all declined to join President Obama at the United Nations’ Climate Summit held in New York this week.

“Angela Merkel, the German prime minister, wrote the Framework Convention on Climate Change when she was an East German," Michaels pointed out, but “Germany has resumed building coal-fired power plants because they can’t get enough electricity out of solar energy and windmills.

“We told you so,” he said with a laugh.