terça-feira, 22 de abril de 2014

Obama: como não fazer amigos e não influenciar ninguém.

O Financial Times escreveu sobre a falha épica na liderança dos Estados Unidos sob Obama, tanto domesticamente como internacionalmente. O artigo trata especialmente do relacionamento com os BRICS (Brasil, Rússia, Índia, China e África do Sul), mas conclui que ninguém também quer ouvir o presidente dentro dos Estados Unidos.

Bom, eu posso me orgulhar em dizer que eu falei que a administração Obama iria ser um desastre completo em 2008, ano da primeira eleição dele. Para concluir isto o que eu fiz foi apenas acompanhar os debates eleitorais e estudar quem é Obama (como ele chegou a ser senador, o que ele defendia e quem o defendia).

Vejam parte do texto do Financial Times:

How Obama lost friends and influence in the Brics

By Edward Luce

When Barack Obama took office, he pledged a new overture to the world’s emerging powers. Today each of the Brics – Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa – is at loggerheads with America, or worse. Last month four of the five abstained in a UN vote condemning the fifth’s annexation of Crimea. Next month India is likely to elect as its new leader Narendra Modi, who says he has “no interest in visiting America other than to attend the UN in New York”. As the world’s largest democracy, and America’s most natural ally among the emerging powers, India’s is a troubling weathervane. How on earth did Mr Obama lose the Brics?

Some of it was unavoidable. Early in his first term Mr Obama called for a “reset” of US relations with Russia. His overture was warmly received by Dmitry Medvedev, then Russia’s president, who was considerably less anti-western than his predecessor, Vladimir Putin. Unfortunately for Mr Obama, Ukraine, Pussy Riot and many others, Mr Putin repossessed the presidency. The US president can hardly be blamed for that. Things have gone downhill since then.

The trajectory of US relations with China has also been in the wrong direction. Within his first year in office, Mr Obama made his much-feted “G2” visit to China, in which he offered Beijing a global partnership to solve the world’s big problems, from climate change to financial imbalances. Alas, the Chinese did not feel ready to tackle problems on a global level that they were still struggling with at home. Mr Obama was rudely spurned by his hosts.

Mr Obama’s latest defence budget would preclude another Iraq-style invasion. That, of course, is a good thing. But other observers, including those who are beginning to resist American power around the world, are adjusting their behaviour. They see a US that is increasingly unwilling to project global force – except using remote control. Meanwhile, the Brics’ economic growth rates are slowing. But they are still growing faster than the US, and are likely to continue to do so. The economic centre of gravity will continue to shift their way.

Second, the US public is tiring of its country’s global responsibilities. Mr Obama’s real pivot is not to Asia but to America. In this he is only taking his cue from domestic sentiment. Yet his pivot to home is not going too well either. As Lawrence Summers, the former US Treasury secretary, recently observed, the US has two parties, one of which, the Democrats, refuses to endorse any kind of trade deal; the other of which, the Republicans, appears to detest all international institutions. Neither of the two parties listens to what Mr Obama wants. If you believe the television ratings, the US public long ago tuned out from what he says.
Little surprise, then, that the Brics are getting into the habit of talking among themselves.

(Agradeço a indicação do texto do FT ao site Weasel Zippers)

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